The power battery of "big work and fast progress" stimulated by the policy
"expansion, it will certainly expand!" Whenever it is mentioned whether it will continue to expand, the power battery enterprises interviewed by the economic observer will give the above answers without hesitation. A senior executive of a domestic battery company admitted that he was worried about overcapacity, but remained firm in expanding production: "the draft for comments recently released by the Ministry of industry and information technology (normative conditions for the automotive power battery industry (2017) (Draft for comments)), has certain requirements for capacity, and expanding production may be excessive, but if it does not expand production, the enterprise may not go on and can only exit the industry."
at the end of 2016, with the end of the fraud investigation, the introduction of the new deal of new energy subsidies, and the official lifting of the ban on ternary batteries, new energy vehicles resumed rapid growth, and the power battery industry also ushered in a new round of investment boom. Under the dual catalysis of the annual production capacity threshold of up to 8billion watt hours and the increased subsidy technology standards, a large amount of capital poured into the capacity expansion plan of power batteries
industry insiders predict that in 2017, with the decline in the cost of "three electricity" (battery, motor and electronic control) of new energy vehicles and the support of industrial capital, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow to more than 700000 units, an increase of about 50% over 500000 units in 2016. On the other hand, due to the slowing growth of passenger cars and the small carrying capacity of batteries in passenger cars and logistics vehicles, the industry is expected to increase battery demand by only 20% to 31gwh in 2017. However, the current data show that the effective capacity of power batteries in 2017 is close to 90gwh
power battery enterprises are not unaware of the risks, but most enterprises still choose to run fast in the plywood of policy urging and lagging demand
however, the subsidy policy that has retreated again has put a question mark on the development of new energy vehicles. With the reduction of subsidies, the price of new energy vehicles began to rise. Without the reduction of vehicle manufacturing costs, consumer enthusiasm is bound to be hit. The battery, which accounts for 40% of the cost of new energy vehicles, is inevitably pushed to the tuyere of contradiction
on the one hand, under the cover of short supply, there are many problems in the battery industry. First, there is the contradiction between the abnormal growth driven by the influx of a large amount of hot money and the original state of the industry with backward technology and disordered order; The second is the unhealthy competition between different technical routes, as well as the increasingly intensified contradictions in the industrial chain caused by the upstream and downstream price conflicts. As the hottest technical route in the battery industry, lithium battery has become the area with the most contradictions
industry experts remind that at present, China's new energy vehicle development is entering a critical second five years, which may be the time from the initial stage to the real explosion, or it may be the five years towards difficulties. This tuyere is both an east wind and a tornado. What the power battery industry needs to do is to be truly demand-oriented and avoid being involved in the "eye of the wind", being held high and falling heavily
tuyere: Policy stimulated "big work fast"
on January 9, Zhuo Neng's 5billion kwh lithium battery standard II project was officially offline. After the completion of the whole project, the cumulative capacity of Zhuo Neng's two bases in Shenzhen and Guangxi can reach 8gwh. This is just the corner of the "great leap forward" of China's power battery industry
according to the energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap released in October 2016, the market scale of new energy vehicles will expand rapidly in the future. By 2020, 2025 and 2030, the annual production and sales scale of vehicles will be 30million, 35million and 38million respectively, of which the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for more than 7%, 15% and 40% of the total sales volume, that is, the total sales volume will exceed 2.1 million, 5.25 million and 15.2 million respectively
on December 29, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of science and technology, and the national development and Reform Commission issued the "notice on adjusting the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles". Among them, in terms of passenger cars, the requirements for power consumption of 100 kilometers and the encouragement of high energy density are added
GF Securities pointed out that in terms of the new regulations, the first is to clearly stipulate that passenger cars must meet certain power consumption requirements for 100 kilometers according to the weight of the whole vehicle, and the second is to subsidize vehicles with an energy density of more than 120wh/kg by 1.1 times the standard. At present, lithium iron phosphate and type 523 ternary batteries usually have an energy density of 90-120, so the policy is to encourage high-energy ternary batteries with an energy density of more than 120
with the full lifting of the ban on ternary batteries on new energy buses from January 1, the entire lithium battery sector has received capital attention. After several days of fermentation, a collective blowout occurred in the lithium battery sector on January 4, with the volume limit of dangsheng technology, Tianci materials, Keheng shares, etc. rising by more than 5% in Tianqi lithium and duofluoro
this macro vision inevitably shapes the power battery into a hot concept for capital competition. Nibbling on the cake of the emerging market means an opportunity for the reversal of the industry status, and capital flocks to the mainstream power battery
according to incomplete statistics, in 2016, the capital invested in the field of power batteries has exceeded 100 billion yuan. 65 listed companies, including GuoXuan high tech, Shanshan shares, Mengshi technology, smart energy, and greenmei, competed to expand or carry out power battery business by directly participating in upstream and downstream companies in the industrial chain, raising funds through non-public development banks, and establishing subsidiaries
among them, BYD, smart energy, Dagang shares, GuoXuan high tech, Dongfang Seiko, Hengdian dongci invested more than 3 billion yuan in the field of power batteries at one time, and smart energy, Fulin Seiko, Changxin technology, GuoXuan high tech, western resources, Youfu shares, Jianrui fire, Dongxu optoelectronics, Tianqi lithium, del home, Dongfang Seiko, St Jiangquan, Yiwei lithium energy, Tianji shares, keliyuan, Nandu power supply, Jianrui fire Camel shares, lion technology and other enterprises invested more than one billion yuan at a time
on December 29, 2015, Chengdu Airlines integration said that AVIC lithium battery plans to start the phase II construction project of the industrial park. The total investment scale of the project is 4373.4 million yuan, and the production line of lithium-ion power batteries with an annual output of 5billion watt hours of ternary materials will be built. Chengdu Airlines integration said that during the operation period of the project, it is expected to achieve an average annual sales revenue of 4.783 billion yuan. The project has good economic benefits and will have a positive impact on the company's business performance
dangsheng technology, which produces cathode materials, said that it would add 4000 tons of capacity next year, an increase of about 40%. Subsequently, the company will promote new capacity planning according to capacity release and market conditions. In addition, Tianci materials for the production of electrolyte raised more than 600million yuan and invested in 2300t/a new lithium salt project, 2000t/a solid lithium hexafluorophosphate project and 30000t/a battery grade iron phosphate material project
on December 30, Xiamen tungsten industry announced that because it is also optimistic about the development of ternary materials, the company plans to establish Ningde Xiamen tungsten new energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xiamen tungsten new energy and Mindong Electric Power, to jointly invest in the construction of a production line of lithium ion ternary materials for vehicles with an annual output of 20000 tons, mainly producing and selling high nickel ternary materials
and some companies enter power batteries through restructuring and acquisition. GuoXuan high tech acquired GuoXuan high tech, which is engaged in lithium-ion power batteries (packs) for new energy vehicles, through fixed increase, and raised more than 800million yuan of supporting funds to invest in the construction of 240million ah power lithium battery industrialization project and power lithium battery and its material R & D center construction project. The company focuses on promoting the project construction of Hefei GuoXuan power lithium battery with an annual output of 600million ampere hours and Qingdao GuoXuan power lithium battery with an annual output of 300million ampere hours
according to the statistics of the Ministry of industry and information technology, China's power battery monomer enterprises have reached 227, twice the number at the beginning of 2014
a person in the power battery industry said that capital is necessary for industrial development. Whether it is a cross-border enterprise or the original leader of the battery industry, the premise is capital, but it also depends on the cost, service, technology and other environmental energy conservation can not keep up. Whether the following enterprises can become windward growth depends on the specific enterprise situation
excess: how to consume 170gwh annual capacity
"now in the field of power batteries, it is not possible to have excess, but definitely excess." Prince Dong said, "the capacity of 170gwh/year is more than 7 times the demand, and who uses the remaining 6/7?"
Prince Dong is the director of the power battery Laboratory of China Northern Vehicle Research Institute and the director of the National 863 electric vehicle major special power battery test center. Just two months ago, when he was interviewed by the economic observer on the capacity threshold of power battery enterprises of 8billion watt hours, he believed that compared with the excess risk, China needs to take advantage of the scale effect to form international competitiveness in the power battery field. But the impulse of domestic battery enterprises to expand production obviously exceeded his expectations. "According to the current production expansion plan of power battery enterprises, the total capacity exceeds 170gwh/year. You can calculate by yourself. The production expansion plan of enterprises is only much more than what I said." Wang Zidong said. According to the statistics of China Association of automobile manufacturers, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China were nearly 490000 before 2015, with a total sales of 517000 in 2016. "According to the market sales ratio of 1:10 between electric buses and electric passenger vehicles, 170gwh can meet the total demand of 500000 electric buses and 5million electric passenger vehicles with an annual output of about 500000, but it is also a little regrettable that three stars give up plastic too early. According to the development plan of China's new energy vehicles, this may be China's goal after 2025."
"there has been a large-scale excess of battery capacity since 2016, and the difference between production and demand is close to 20gwh, which is expected to be about 60gwh by 2017." An industry analyst pointed out. Although the sales of new energy vehicles have been increasing, the overcapacity of power lithium batteries has been visible and has been very serious
in November last year, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the standard conditions for automotive power battery industry (2017) (Exposure Draft), which proposed that the annual output capacity of lithium-ion power battery single enterprises should not be less than 8billion watt hours. Some experts with higher specific strength said that the original intention of regulating conditions was to prevent capital from rushing into the battery industry by raising the threshold of production capacity. From the perspective of production capacity, the survival of the fittest may be easier for regulators to operate and supervise
however, enterprises are not optimistic about the role that the capacity limit in this exposure draft can play in the industry. A person in charge of a power battery production enterprise told the Economic Observer: "this round of expansion investment and expansion scale are very large. There are two kinds of expansion enterprises. One is that they originally have the foundation to produce power batteries, and the other part has no foundation, and suddenly entered. For the first category, it is OK, for the second part, it is very risky. But at present, there is too much hot money to stop."
"this is forcing enterprises to increase ineffective production capacity." A person in charge of a power battery enterprise in Guangzhou believes that "the urgent launch of production capacity is to meet the policy threshold, not to meet the needs of customers. Maybe in the future, this industry will be like the photovoltaic industry in the past, after the corpses are everywhere, it can restore rationality."
Prince Dong said that the preparation and utilization technologies of chemicals for integrated circuits and discrete devices, chemicals for printed circuit board production and assembly, chemicals for display devices, chemicals for color liquid crystal displays, chemicals for printed circuit board (PCB) processing, ultra clean and high-purity reagents and special (Electronic) gases, advanced packaging materials and chemicals for grinding and polishing, etc. are the problems that need to be solved urgently in China's new energy vehicle industry at present, Not power battery
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